UBS Projects $42 Billion Data Center Revenue for NVIDIA in April Quarter, Driven by Taiwan’s Soaring Exports
As the global trade landscape continues to evolve in the wake of intensifying US-China tariff conflicts, NVIDIA finds itself uniquely positioned at the nexus of opportunity and uncertainty. Now, UBS is weighing in with a striking projection: $42 billion in data center revenue for the April-ending quarter, based largely on Taiwan’s impressive export performance.
According to a new research note by UBS analyst Timothy Arcuri, Taiwan’s March 2025 exports of Automatic Data Processing (ADP) equipment, excluding laptops reached $12.03 billion, representing a 20.6% month-over-month (MoM) growth over February’s $9.97 billion. While March typically sees mid-20% MoM growth, Arcuri highlights that February’s figures were exceptionally strong, marking the highest February exports in over a decade, with a rare +14% MoM increase (compared to a typical -15% contraction).
UBS extrapolates this trend forward: if April maintains its historical 36% contribution to the total April quarter, Taiwan could deliver $34 billion in ADP equipment exports, representing a quarter-over-quarter growth of 58%.
“Assuming April constitutes a 'normal' 36% of total F1Q (April quarter) would imply ~$34B of exports — a large step-up of ~58% Q/Q — although it is unclear to what extent this reflects tariff pull-ins rather than underlying strength,” Arcuri wrote.
Implications for NVIDIA
UBS models this export performance as indicative of a major uptick in NVIDIA’s data center revenue, suggesting an 18% sequential growth to $42 billion for the April quarter. While Arcuri acknowledges that Taiwanese export data hasn't reliably tracked NVIDIA’s revenue trends in recent quarters, he notes that the supportive demand signals — including above-seasonal revenue figures reported by TSMC for March — lend confidence to the outlook.
This analysis arrives just as Citi issued a downward revision of NVIDIA’s total GPU sales forecast by 3% for calendar year 2025 and 5% for 2026, driven by concerns over reduced capex from Microsoft and potential delays in enterprise investment amid economic uncertainties.
Conversely, Lynx Equity remains bullish on NVIDIA’s strategic positioning, particularly its multi-layered manufacturing and assembly strategy designed to avoid the impact of US tariffs. With AI server components sourced largely outside the United States and assembled in Taiwan, NVIDIA has effectively hedged against escalating trade tensions.
“With China’s continued dependence on NVDA products,” Lynx Equity adds, “punitive tariffs from Beijing remain unlikely.” As a result, the firm expects NVIDIA to rebound to its recent highs.
With Taiwan’s exports surging and NVIDIA strategically navigating global trade challenges, do you believe the $42B forecast is realistic? Will we see further market expansion in Q2? Let us know your thoughts below.
